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New Yorkers will learn the identity of their next mayor this Tuesday, in a contest that will decide who governs and protects the country's most populous metropolis at a time when the former president has vowed to deploy military troops to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has experienced a mayoral election that has matched two very different Democratic figures against each other. The election has turned into an increasingly bitter face-off, laced with accusations of racism and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading contenders that could have significant consequences for how the party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is the democratic socialist, the young democratic socialist whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has brought global notice. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the ex- Democratic New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the backing of ultra-rich donors and big business.

With days to go, it is the progressive, the former longshot who beat Cuomo in the party primary who is solidly positioned as the frontrunner. The candidate, who has campaigned on a agenda of economic justice and pledged to freeze rent for about two million city residents, has outpaced his rival by double-digits across all surveys taken in October, and it is very much the progressive's election to lose.

A Bitter Contest

However, the former governor, who resigned as governor in 2021 amid allegations of sexual harassment, has stated clearly he will battle to the finish, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has criticized his opponent's goals as unrealistic, and in recent days chuckled along as a broadcaster made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is Muslim. Recently, the independent was strongly criticized as racist after posting an artificial intelligence video that featured a slew of racial caricatures and showed Mamdani freeing a group of criminals.

This represents a particularly ugly conclusion to an election that could be critical to the path that the Democratic party, struggling in its reaction to Trump's power moves, takes in the coming years.

National Implications

If the progressive secures a clear victory, the establishment party leaders who have refused to endorse his campaign will be forced to reckon with a message that has resonated with Americans' anger at inequality, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be difficult for the Senate leader and Hakeem Jeffries not to embrace at least a portion of Mamdani's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the newcomer has created an enthusiasm within the Democratic ranks arguably not witnessed since Bernie Sanders ran for president eight years ago.

Conversely, if the former governor, who had been expected to sail to victory in the June primary, complete a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could cement national Democrats' existing approach of cautious, uninspiring opposition – a tactic that has infuriated grassroots members. A NYC defeat of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could persuade Schumer and Jeffries that the best plan is to remain in the political center – even as polls show the current iteration of the party is widely disliked nationwide.

Campaign Energy

Residents of the city seem to prefer the progressive agenda. Surveys show that Mamdani supporters are far more enthusiastic about their candidate than his opponent's supporters, something that has been apparent during the race. The candidate's engaging content on digital platforms, his optimistic vision for New York and his readiness to actually venture out and meet people in the city has attracted an force of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Personal Attacks

Yet, Cuomo, in his late sixties, isn't giving up. And with the stakes stacked against him, the former governor has turned to ugly messaging in the final days.

After spending months throwing basically everything at Mamdani to see what might stick, the independent has concentrated on targeting the candidate directly. He has labelled Mamdani, who was born in Uganda to South Asian heritage, an “extremist”, and appeared on Fox Business for an interview with a rightwing host, where the candidate asserted New York “will not survive” Mamdani as city leader. It reached a nadir recently, when the former governor chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said Mamdani would “cheer” another terrorist incident.

Political Landscape

The line of attack mirrors much of what the former president, who has deployed the national guard to Washington DC and threatened to do the same to New York, has said about the progressive, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A group of wealthy residents, including some who donated to the Republican in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to get Cuomo into office, as other powerful voices have pressured Curtis Sliwa to drop out from the contest.

Candidate Backgrounds

For the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are concerned, it should never have come to this point. When Mamdani, one of 150 New York state assembly members, launched his campaign for mayor in last year, few had heard of him, and in reality, barely anyone even paid attention.

Cuomo, by contrast, eased his way into the contest in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the big beast who seemingly held every edge. The quintessential political insider, he had married a political dynasty member and served in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as the state's leader in 2011, 17 years after his parent, the former governor, left office from the same position.

Mamdani, who was elected to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the same political heritage. But his commitment to providing free buses and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – present a more positive vision of the city's direction than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his vow to increase police presence.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, the candidate has faced difficulties in recent days, after video surfaced appearing to show him implying the NYPD and the IDF were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the police is on your throat, it’s been influenced by the IDF,” the candidate said in the clip, filmed at a Democratic Socialists of America gathering in 2023. The progressive, a longtime critic of the Israeli government who has said the country is engaging in atrocities in Gaza, indicated he was questioning cooperative programs between the NYPD and Israeli forces.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, the candidate seems to have gained empathy and backing, however, for his response to Cuomo’s escalating attacks.

Mamdani responded to Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, the candidate remembered how, when he first campaigned for state assembly, a Muslim uncle advised to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a lesson, he said, that many local Muslims had been taught “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where Muslims could embrace their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those seclusion, then it is in those shadows that we must set aside our faith.”

Addressing the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has alleged Mamd