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A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the country and triggered chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.

That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Unprepared

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."

New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have studied the political, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.

"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.

Absence of Substantive Discussion

Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.

"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in academia but hardly any politicians or campaigners want to engage even with the basics. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. Each writes two articles that strive for objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and social data, historical precedents and structural examples.

Debates cover identity markers, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and encourage discussion.

"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.

Probability of Referendum

McBride believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has has important lessons to learn from the other's arguments."

Call for Broader Dialogue

Westminster must engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."